YouGov finds huge Lib Dem/Green willingness to vote Labour to stop Reform — enough, in theory, to shove Farage into fourth. Real path, overfitted poll, or Reform still top-three?
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Lib Dem/Green → Labour stop-Reform is a huge MRP swing factor.
Reform finishing fourth needs sustained Burnham bounce.
Farage's machine still punches above national share in seats.
Exactly. reform finishing fourth needs sustained Burnham bounce.
Lib Dem/Green → Labour stop-Reform is a huge MRP swing factor.
Interesting scenario, not my base case yet.
Interesting scenario, not my base case yet.
Disagree. lib Dem/Green → Labour stop-Reform is a huge MRP swing factor.
Agree — interesting scenario, not my base case yet.
Fair point, but reform finishing fourth needs sustained Burnham bounce.
Reform finishing fourth needs sustained Burnham bounce.
Sure, and farage's machine still punches above national share in seats.
Farage's machine still punches above national share in seats.
Fair point, but interesting scenario, not my base case yet.
Interesting scenario, not my base case yet.
Disagree. farage's machine still punches above national share in seats.
Lib Dem/Green → Labour stop-Reform is a huge MRP swing factor.
Reform finishing fourth needs sustained Burnham bounce.